Barring any unforeseen "October surprise" or something similar, I will give you my bold prediction for the 2012 election. Now, don't get me wrong, A LOT can change between now and November, and Lord knows that Romney has no spine, AND that certain Conservatives want to vote Third Party (because they are brain dead) AND that many Americans are just plain dumb enough to buy the "Hope and Change" thing for another 4 years. But, my friends, I offer some real "hope" (even if voting for Romney is not our most favorite thing to do as Conservatives). Here is my prediction at this moment for the elections:
Romney will win by a BIGGER margin than expected.
I think the Democrats know this and so does Obama...why else, other than being Chicago political thugs and Democrats, would they start launching attacks on Romney when he hasn't even secured the Republican nomination yet? You might be wondering WHY I think this will happen and let me give you my reasons:
1. It's the economy stupid. Our economy is in a shambles with Obama driving our country further and further into debt. The American people are feeling the pain, and they will make Obama feel in it November.
2. The electoral map is changing. I know the Democrats think they have the advantage in this election, and in sense they do as their candidate is the incumbent. But, they are losing SEVERAL key races for the House and the Senate, they got shellacked in 2010 and now, Obama is losing more ground with key constituencies. Moreover, with the Democrats losing ground in WI in the Scott Walker race, Obama is suddenly VERY vulnerable.
3. Polls, polls, polls. I hate polls...they tell you what the pollsters want you to think, not necessarily what will happen. Just look at all of the polls that use "Registered Voters" for sampling, while over-sample Democrat voters by 6-10%. These polls that show Obama even at best are bad news for the President. When polls of likely voters are used, the President is losing badly. Heck, even in polls run by Liberals, Obama is losing key groups like women and independents and that doesn't bode well for his chances. That being said, polls are only a snapshot in time and the only one that counts is in November.
4. What was he thinking? The recent choices of issues embraced by President Obama are puzzling. Why, if you know your Convention is in North Carolina and that their state just voted against legalizing gay marriage, would you come out in favor of it? Now, Obama is losing support of his most strident voting block: black Americans. This along with this threat to do away with DOMA, his mishaps the last few weeks starting with a conversation with the Russians, where he essentially sold America out "once the election is over". These are NOT smart moves for someone who is polling in the low 40's.
5. Key interest groups are no longer that interested. As mentioned earlier, Obama's embrace of gay marriage has caused rifts within the black community. If they see Obama as weak, I am not certain they will show up in the numbers that they did in 2008. Add into that more stringent laws like motor voter, etc, fewer Democrats (especially dead ones and illegal immigrants) will vote. Hispanics will not vote for Obama like the did in 2008 (especially if a guy like Rubio is on the ticket) and he has lost his luster as a "rock star" among many students (as evidenced by the empty arena at Ohio State). Add this to the fact that Obama is having some serious issues in the primaries and it signals a disaster in this upcoming election year.
6. Romney up early. Again, reverts to the polls, but if history is any indicator, any incumbent that polls in low 40's (Obama at 42%) will lose. Clinton won with this percentage in 1992, but he wasn't the incumbent and he would have lost it Perot hadn't taken votes away from Bush. The troubling part for Obama is that Romney, though the presumed Republican nominee, has yet to win the nomination and yet he is running either slightly behind or ahead of Obama. When he has the nomination shored up and the debates/advertising start, the number supporting Romney will go higher. The underdog usually gets those last minute undecided voters.
7. The Clinton effect. Isn't it interesting that Hillary recently said that the government shouldn't be too involved in the lives of our citizens? Yes, I laughed out loud too...this coming from a radical Leftist politician. What would possess her to say this in a speech? The other issue is Obama's recent flack with his publishers...how did the fact that he was "born in Kenya" all of the sudden become news? Could it be that Democrats are really worried about their candidate?
8. Mobilized voters. This year, Republicans and Conservatives will be out in force at the polls...and, even those of us who don't like Romney, will walk over broken glass to vote the President out of office. Too, with the Unions losing the recall battle in Blue Wisconsin and just the general state of the nation, Democrats will be less enthusiastic to vote in this election. Of course, they could always use MASSIVE voter fraud like the do in each cycle (like having 107% of the people vote in Philly, or having several hundred thousand illegal voters in Florida), but even this won't be enough to overcome Obama's shortcomings.
9. The electoral map. This is where it gets fun. Obama MUST hold ALL of the states that he won that were won by Bush in 2004 in order to even have a chance in this election. Right now, he is losing Indiana and North Carolina...this is a bad start for the President. Now, if Walker wins against the recall, the unions will have been defeated again and will have spent much money trying to oust the governor. Knowing that the Democrats have pulled funds and headed out of Wisconsin, I suspect that there won't be a lot of money or votes to spread around. Now, in my opinion, Obama will lose Florida, IN, NC, NH, Ohio and VA. He is having a hard time getting big leads in traditionally blue states like WI, MI, MN, NJ, NV, NM, OR, WA...if he is forced to spend money in blue states, he won't have enough resources to run in purple states. So, here is my final analysis (and it is subject to change) about the blue states that will go for Romney. I think that it will be close in PA (again, he will have to spend money here, along with NJ, and WA) and MI and WA and CO. I think he loses Wisconsin and either MI or MN, NV and NM. Romney will sweep the South including Florida. Again, this can all change and I reserve the right to update it later, but I see a scenario where Romney pulls about 350 Electoral Votes.
10. The Reagan effect. We have seen this story play out before...in 1980. The circumstances were similar then as they are now, except that things are worse now. The economy was the focus of the election just as it is this time. Carter also have trouble in the Middle East, and my guess is that Obama will have a tough time deciding about Iran or deciding what to do about the situation in Egypt. Also, MANY Democrats, as referenced in the polls (Reagan Democrats) will either sit out this election or vote for Romney. The polls were similar to the ones now and the incumbent was polling very low right up until the last week of the election. I see the same thing happening this time around.
Bottom line, although Republicans settled once again for a RINO, this is our year to send Obama back to Chicago. And, barring something unexpected, I expect it to happen.
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